Author : Shahzeb Zakaria
Based on web data, we have observed a notable deterioration in multifamily and single-family rentals trends during April-20.
COVID-19’s impact was so profound that even the Lease Over Lease Δ change did not exhibit the seasonal improvement in Apr-20 from Mar-20 levels for all publicly traded residential REITs (except one company that might be more focused on rate versus occupancy).
Lease Over Lease Δ figures increase during the spring/summer months due to seasonality (as short-term leases signed during the winter get reset at higher summer levels). The correct way to analyze multifamily & single-family rental health is to compare the levels in April-20 against levels from April-19 (nullifying the impact of seasonality). Our statistic, Y/Y Differential in Lease Over Lease Δ, makes this comparison and hence is the most appropriate gauge for the health of multifamily & single-family rents.
Our Lease Over Lease ∆ has a 96% regression r-square with American Homes 4 Rent’s (AMH) reported “Avg. Change in Rent for Re-Leases”.